Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Berry

Adelaide · @ ESS

11.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

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Avg

11.3

10.4

L10

11.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

22.6Disposals398.8

11.3Kicks232.6

2.5Marks116.9

7.7Tackles50.5

5.4Clearances33.3

3.4Inside 50s55.1

11.7Contested Poss.121.4

0.1Goals15.0

Disposals

Sam22.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Sam11.3

ESS232.6

Marks

Sam2.5

ESS116.9

Tackles

Sam7.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Sam5.4

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Sam3.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Sam11.7

ESS121.4

Goals

Sam0.1

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands7.1(11)-0.5

Everywhere else7.6(83)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)7.4(9)-0.1

Dry games7.6(85)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.