Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Berry

Adelaide · @ ESS

5.5 CLO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

5.4

6.2

L10

5.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

22.6Disposals398.8

11.3Kicks232.6

2.5Marks116.9

7.7Tackles50.5

5.4Clearances33.3

3.4Inside 50s55.1

11.7Contested Poss.121.4

0.1Goals15.0

Disposals

Sam22.6

ESS398.8

Kicks

Sam11.3

ESS232.6

Marks

Sam2.5

ESS116.9

Tackles

Sam7.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Sam5.4

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Sam3.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Sam11.7

ESS121.4

Goals

Sam0.1

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Clearances

33.3per game · league avg 35.7

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Clearances

At Docklands2.5(11)-1.3

Everywhere else3.7(83)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Clearances

Wet games (≥1mm)3.8(9)+0.2

Dry games3.6(85)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.