Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Mark Keane

Adelaide · @ ESS

11.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

40% (2/5)

enter odds to compare

Avg

11.6

L10

11.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Markvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

16.0Disposals398.8

11.6Kicks232.6

4.6Marks116.9

1.4Tackles50.5

0.0Clearances33.3

0.8Inside 50s55.1

4.6Contested Poss.121.4

0.0Goals15.0

Disposals

Mark16.0

ESS398.8

Kicks

Mark11.6

ESS232.6

Marks

Mark4.6

ESS116.9

Tackles

Mark1.4

ESS50.5

Clearances

Mark0.0

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Mark0.8

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Mark4.6

ESS121.4

Goals

Mark0.0

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Kicks

232.6per game · league avg 213.8

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At Docklands9.3(4)-2.9

Everywhere else12.2(52)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)12.3(6)+0.4

Dry games11.9(50)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.