P
Current to Round 20, 2 days ago
Matt Guelfi
Matt Guelfi
Essendon · vs ADE
1.5 TKO —U —
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
enter odds to compare
Avg
1.3
L5
1.3
L10
1.3
High
3

Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
3NORMar 281WBDApr 050RICMay 22?ADEAug 021.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE
Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Matt4.7
ADE356.6
Kicks
Matt1.3
ADE210.2
Marks
Matt0.0
ADE80.6
Tackles
Matt1.3
ADE60.7
Clearances
Matt0.0
ADE39.3
Inside 50s
Matt1.0
ADE52.4
Contested Poss.
Matt3.0
ADE138.8
Goals
Matt0.0
ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9
#6 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands3.0(36)+0.4
Everywhere else2.6(71)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.6(14)+1.0
Dry games2.6(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.