Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Matt Guelfi

Essendon · vs ADE

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

33% (1/3)

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Avg

3.3

L10

3.3

High

Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mattvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

4.7Disposals356.6

1.3Kicks210.2

0.0Marks80.6

1.3Tackles60.7

0.0Clearances39.3

1.0Inside 50s52.4

3.0Contested Poss.138.8

0.0Goals11.1

Disposals

Matt4.7

ADE356.6

Kicks

Matt1.3

ADE210.2

Marks

Matt0.0

ADE80.6

Tackles

Matt1.3

ADE60.7

Clearances

Matt0.0

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Matt1.0

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Matt3.0

ADE138.8

Goals

Matt0.0

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Handballs

146.3per game · league avg 155.5

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands6.0(36)+0.5

Everywhere else5.5(71)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)5.2(14)-0.5

Dry games5.8(93)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.