Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Christian Petracca

Gold Coast · vs MEL

13.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (7/16)

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Avg

13.1

13.6

L10

13.0

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Christianvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

24.8Disposals382.0

11.7Kicks220.8

3.3Marks101.2

2.4Tackles51.0

5.5Clearances35.6

5.1Inside 50s52.3

11.8Contested Poss.129.3

1.4Goals13.1

Disposals

Christian24.8

MEL382.0

Kicks

Christian11.7

MEL220.8

Marks

Christian3.3

MEL101.2

Tackles

Christian2.4

MEL51.0

Clearances

Christian5.5

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Christian5.1

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Christian11.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Christian1.4

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara15.1(8)+4.1

Everywhere else11.0(8)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)

Dry games13.1(16)

Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.