Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Durham

Essendon · vs ADE

0.5 GLO —U —

Hit rate

41% (7/17)

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Avg

0.5

0.6

L10

0.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

20.6Disposals356.6

9.6Kicks210.2

3.5Marks80.6

3.7Tackles60.7

4.3Clearances39.3

4.2Inside 50s52.4

9.1Contested Poss.138.8

0.5Goals11.1

Disposals

Sam20.6

ADE356.6

Kicks

Sam9.6

ADE210.2

Marks

Sam3.5

ADE80.6

Tackles

Sam3.7

ADE60.7

Clearances

Sam4.3

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Sam4.2

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Sam9.1

ADE138.8

Goals

Sam0.5

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Goals

11.1per game · league avg 12.7

#17 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Goals

At Docklands0.3(40)

Everywhere else0.4(68)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(10)+0.2

Dry games0.3(98)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.