Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Nik Cox

Essendon · vs ADE

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

14% (1/7)

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Avg

1.1

1.2

L10

1.1

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nikvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

11.7Disposals356.6

5.4Kicks210.2

3.0Marks80.6

1.1Tackles60.7

1.0Clearances39.3

1.4Inside 50s52.4

4.7Contested Poss.138.8

0.4Goals11.1

Disposals

Nik11.7

ADE356.6

Kicks

Nik5.4

ADE210.2

Marks

Nik3.0

ADE80.6

Tackles

Nik1.1

ADE60.7

Clearances

Nik1.0

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Nik1.4

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Nik4.7

ADE138.8

Goals

Nik0.4

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands2.5(22)+0.5

Everywhere else2.0(36)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.9(8)-0.3

Dry games2.2(50)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.