Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Nick Bryan

Essendon · vs ADE

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

50% (5/10)

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Avg

5.4

4.2

L10

5.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

10.6Disposals356.6

5.2Kicks210.2

1.7Marks80.6

2.2Tackles60.7

2.7Clearances39.3

1.5Inside 50s52.4

5.7Contested Poss.138.8

0.2Goals11.1

Disposals

Nick10.6

ADE356.6

Kicks

Nick5.2

ADE210.2

Marks

Nick1.7

ADE80.6

Tackles

Nick2.2

ADE60.7

Clearances

Nick2.7

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Nick1.5

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Nick5.7

ADE138.8

Goals

Nick0.2

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Handballs

146.3per game · league avg 155.5

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands3.9(12)-0.4

Everywhere else4.3(21)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)5.0(3)+0.9

Dry games4.1(30)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.