Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Sullivan Robey

Essendon · vs ADE

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

36% (5/14)

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Avg

3.1

2.6

L10

3.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Sullivanvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

16.4Disposals356.6

7.5Kicks210.2

3.1Marks80.6

3.1Tackles60.7

3.7Clearances39.3

3.2Inside 50s52.4

7.4Contested Poss.138.8

0.6Goals11.1

Disposals

Sullivan16.4

ADE356.6

Kicks

Sullivan7.5

ADE210.2

Marks

Sullivan3.1

ADE80.6

Tackles

Sullivan3.1

ADE60.7

Clearances

Sullivan3.7

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Sullivan3.2

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Sullivan7.4

ADE138.8

Goals

Sullivan0.6

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands2.0(4)-1.6

Everywhere else3.6(10)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(2)+1.0

Dry games3.0(12)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.