Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Jacob Farrow

Essendon · vs ADE

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

44% (7/16)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.6

L10

1.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jacobvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

18.3Disposals356.6

11.0Kicks210.2

6.7Marks80.6

1.6Tackles60.7

0.4Clearances39.3

1.2Inside 50s52.4

4.0Contested Poss.138.8

0.1Goals11.1

Disposals

Jacob18.3

ADE356.6

Kicks

Jacob11.0

ADE210.2

Marks

Jacob6.7

ADE80.6

Tackles

Jacob1.6

ADE60.7

Clearances

Jacob0.4

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Jacob1.2

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Jacob4.0

ADE138.8

Goals

Jacob0.1

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands1.3(6)-0.4

Everywhere else1.7(10)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(2)+2.2

Dry games1.3(14)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.