Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

ESS

Jacob Farrow

Essendon · vs ADE

7.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

50% (8/16)

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Avg

7.3

8.6

L10

7.9

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jacobvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

18.3Disposals356.6

11.0Kicks210.2

6.7Marks80.6

1.6Tackles60.7

0.4Clearances39.3

1.2Inside 50s52.4

4.0Contested Poss.138.8

0.1Goals11.1

Disposals

Jacob18.3

ADE356.6

Kicks

Jacob11.0

ADE210.2

Marks

Jacob6.7

ADE80.6

Tackles

Jacob1.6

ADE60.7

Clearances

Jacob0.4

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Jacob1.2

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Jacob4.0

ADE138.8

Goals

Jacob0.1

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Handballs

146.3per game · league avg 155.5

#16 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands7.8(6)+0.8

Everywhere else7.0(10)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)8.0(2)+0.8

Dry games7.2(14)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.