Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Toby Murray

Adelaide · @ ESS

0.5 GAO —U —

Hit rate

27% (3/11)

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Avg

0.3

0.2

L10

0.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tobyvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

6.7Disposals398.8

4.9Kicks232.6

2.8Marks116.9

2.4Tackles50.5

0.8Clearances33.3

1.2Inside 50s55.1

3.5Contested Poss.121.4

0.7Goals15.0

Disposals

Toby6.7

ESS398.8

Kicks

Toby4.9

ESS232.6

Marks

Toby2.8

ESS116.9

Tackles

Toby2.4

ESS50.5

Clearances

Toby0.8

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Toby1.2

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Toby3.5

ESS121.4

Goals

Toby0.7

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Goal Assists

11.6per game · league avg 9.3

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goal Assists

At Docklands0.0(1)-0.3

Everywhere else0.3(10)

Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Goal Assists

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)+0.8

Dry games0.2(10)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.