P
Current to Round 20, 2 days ago
Toby Murray
Toby Murray
Adelaide · @ ESS
6.5 DIO —U —
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
enter odds to compare
Avg
6.7
L5
5.2
L10
7.2
High
14
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
2COLMar 1411BRIApr 2610PORMay 019RICMay 1014NORMay 16☂2HAWMay 216GEEJun 046WBDJun 116WCEJul 034GCSJul 114SYDJul 17?ESSAug 026.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS
Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Toby6.7
ESS398.8
Kicks
Toby4.9
ESS232.6
Marks
Toby2.8
ESS116.9
Tackles
Toby2.4
ESS50.5
Clearances
Toby0.8
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Toby1.2
ESS55.1
Contested Poss.
Toby3.5
ESS121.4
Goals
Toby0.7
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Disposals

398.8per game · league avg 369.3
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Disposals

At Docklands6.0(1)-0.8
Everywhere else6.8(10)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Disposals

Wet games (≥1mm)14.0(1)+8.0
Dry games6.0(10)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.