Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tom McCarthy

West Coast · @ RIC

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

47% (8/17)

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Avg

5.6

5.0

L10

6.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ RIC

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 13:10☁ 15.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 19.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatRIC concedePer game

22.5Disposals391.8

16.8Kicks224.9

6.1Marks107.6

2.1Tackles53.8

1.3Clearances33.7

2.3Inside 50s56.5

4.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.1Goals15.3

Disposals

Tom22.5

RIC391.8

Kicks

Tom16.8

RIC224.9

Marks

Tom6.1

RIC107.6

Tackles

Tom2.1

RIC53.8

Clearances

Tom1.3

RIC33.7

Inside 50s

Tom2.3

RIC56.5

Contested Poss.

Tom4.8

RIC129.3

Goals

Tom0.1

RIC15.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

RIC concede · Handballs

166.9per game · league avg 155.5

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.13.0(1)+6.7

Everywhere else6.3(26)

Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)9.0(1)+2.5

Dry games6.5(26)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.