Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

MEL

Matthew Jefferson

Melbourne · @ GCS

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

45% (5/11)

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Avg

3.6

3.2

L10

3.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Matthewvs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

8.2Disposals359.7

4.5Kicks206.6

3.3Marks83.4

1.5Tackles64.7

0.0Clearances38.2

1.0Inside 50s52.9

4.5Contested Poss.128.1

1.4Goals13.2

Disposals

Matthew8.2

GCS359.7

Kicks

Matthew4.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Matthew3.3

GCS83.4

Tackles

Matthew1.5

GCS64.7

Clearances

Matthew0.0

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Matthew1.0

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Matthew4.5

GCS128.1

Goals

Matthew1.4

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Handballs

153.2per game · league avg 155.5

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara2.0(1)-1.2

Everywhere else3.2(17)

Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(1)-0.1

Dry games3.1(17)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.