Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

MEL

Matthew Jefferson

Melbourne · @ GCS

1.5 GLO —U —

Hit rate

36% (4/11)

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Avg

1.4

1.8

L10

1.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.5°C☂ 1.5mm (27%)🌬 13.3 km/hWet ball risk

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Matthewvs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

8.2Disposals359.7

4.5Kicks206.6

3.3Marks83.4

1.5Tackles64.7

0.0Clearances38.2

1.0Inside 50s52.9

4.5Contested Poss.128.1

1.4Goals13.2

Disposals

Matthew8.2

GCS359.7

Kicks

Matthew4.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Matthew3.3

GCS83.4

Tackles

Matthew1.5

GCS64.7

Clearances

Matthew0.0

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Matthew1.0

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Matthew4.5

GCS128.1

Goals

Matthew1.4

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Goals

13.2per game · league avg 12.7

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goals

At Carrara0.0(1)-1.1

Everywhere else1.1(17)

Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Goals

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)-0.1

Dry games1.1(17)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.