Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Bailey Macdonald

Hawthorn · vs NOR

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

50% (4/8)

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Avg

3.0

4.0

L10

3.0

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Baileyvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

13.3Disposals340.7

5.4Kicks197.6

2.8Marks90.7

3.0Tackles54.6

0.4Clearances33.9

1.4Inside 50s52.3

4.1Contested Poss.119.2

0.0Goals13.4

Disposals

Bailey13.3

NOR340.7

Kicks

Bailey5.4

NOR197.6

Marks

Bailey2.8

NOR90.7

Tackles

Bailey3.0

NOR54.6

Clearances

Bailey0.4

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Bailey1.4

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Bailey4.1

NOR119.2

Goals

Bailey0.0

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Tackles

54.6per game · league avg 56.9

#13 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At York Park2.0(4)+0.2

Everywhere else1.8(12)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(2)+1.9

Dry games1.6(14)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.