AFL
PProjectPunt
Bailey Macdonald
Bailey Macdonald
Hawthorn · vs ESS
3.5 TKO U
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
enter odds to compare
Avg
3.0
L5
4.0
L10
3.0
High
5
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
1ADEMay 210STKMay 283WBDJun 051GCSJun 195GWSJun 265MELJul 045CARJul 114RICJul 19?ESSJul 253.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Bailey13.3
ESS398.8
Kicks
Bailey5.4
ESS232.6
Marks
Bailey2.8
ESS116.9
Tackles
Bailey3.0
ESS50.5
Clearances
Bailey0.4
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Bailey1.4
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Bailey4.1
ESS121.4
Goals
Bailey0.0
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Tackles

50.5per game · league avg 56.9
#16 of 18 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At M.C.G.2.7(7)+1.4
Everywhere else1.3(7)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.5(2)+1.8
Dry games1.8(12)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.