Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, yesterday

Bailey Macdonald

Hawthorn · vs NOR

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

25% (2/8)

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Avg

0.4

L10

0.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.9°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 14.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Baileyvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

13.3Disposals340.7

5.4Kicks197.6

2.8Marks90.7

3.0Tackles54.6

0.4Clearances33.9

1.4Inside 50s52.3

4.1Contested Poss.119.2

0.0Goals13.4

Disposals

Bailey13.3

NOR340.7

Kicks

Bailey5.4

NOR197.6

Marks

Bailey2.8

NOR90.7

Tackles

Bailey3.0

NOR54.6

Clearances

Bailey0.4

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Bailey1.4

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Bailey4.1

NOR119.2

Goals

Bailey0.0

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park0.5(4)+0.2

Everywhere else0.3(12)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.4

Dry games0.4(14)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.