• 0.3 baseline — his last 4 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.9/game vs a 3.9 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.