• 0.0 baseline — his last 4 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 2.5/game vs a 3.5 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.