2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 34.8/game vs a 32.8 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 2.2 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jasonvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
154.3
90
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Jason 154.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
73
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Jason 2.3/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.9
58
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Jason 18.9/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Jason 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
55
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Jason 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Jason 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
84
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Jason 0.8/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
61.0
97
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Jason 61.0/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Jason154.3
90
GLD1851.3
94
Jason 154.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Jason2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tackle Breaks
34.8per game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium2.2(5)
Everywhere else2.2(104)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)3.4(5)+1.3
Dry games2.1(104)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.9
Avg diff %
+21%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.10-100%
08-06NQLHeilum Luki2.15+133%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt1.62+23%
08-06NQLTom Chester3.88+113%
08-06NQLJake Clifford2.03+54%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue2.54+58%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater3.33-10%
08-06NQLReuben Cotter0.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jason's. Computed from this app's own records.