0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 2.5/game vs a 3.5 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ashtonvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
59.6
36
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Ashton 59.6/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
38
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Ashton 1.0/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.3
44
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Ashton 14.3/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
36
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Ashton 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
96
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Ashton 0.8/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
34
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Ashton 0.1/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
47
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Ashton 0.3/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.1
15
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Ashton 8.1/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Ashton59.6
36
WAR1543.0
13
Ashton 59.6/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Ashton1.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Try Assists
2.5per game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Try Assists
At Go Media Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.6(19)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Try Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.7(3)+0.1
Dry games0.6(16)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Try Assists
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-24%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.20-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.10-100%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins0.31+233%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.20-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.000%
08-07PENNathan Cleary1.41-29%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar0.000%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ashton's. Computed from this app's own records.