Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.0−0.5 vs your line
0.0 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Aaronvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
17.3
8
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Aaron 17.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
14
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Aaron 0.3/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
6
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Aaron 2.3/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Aaron 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Aaron 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Aaron 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
49
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Aaron 0.3/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.7
13
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Aaron 6.7/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Aaron17.3
8
MEL1679.1
50
Aaron 17.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Aaron0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Goals
0.0per game · league avg 0.0
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Goals
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.0(68)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Goals
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)
Dry games0.0(65)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Goals
Avg diff
0.0
Avg diff %
0%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANReuben Garrick0.000%
08-08MANJamal Fogarty0.000%
08-08MANJason Saab0.000%
08-08MANTolutau Koula0.000%
08-08MANBlake Wilson0.000%
08-08MANJoey Walsh0.000%
08-08MANLehi Hopoate0.000%
08-08MANTaniela Paseka0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Aaron's. Computed from this app's own records.