Only 2 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.2−0.3 vs your line
0.2 baseline — his last 5 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.9/game vs a 3.5 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (79%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.1
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 545.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tom0.0
0
SGI1925.5
100
Tom 0.0/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1690.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Tom0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Try Assists
3.9per game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Try Assists
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.2(5)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Try Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.2(5)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Try Assists
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+156%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth0.32+500%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.000%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako0.10-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock0.91+12%
07-31DOLSelwyn Cobbo0.20-100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.81+33%
07-31DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow0.60-100%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.11+1000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.