• 0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 25.8/game vs a 23.7 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 0 there (15 gm)
• −0.6 wet forecast — averages 0 in the wet (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.