• 0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.4/game vs a 3.5 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (6 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.