0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 10.2/game vs a 9.7 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
36.9
19
Run Metresneutral
56
1722.7
Josh 36.9/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
22
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.6
Josh 0.5/game
NEW concedes 33.6/game · league avg 32.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.5
57
Tacklesunfavorable
19
333.3
Josh 18.5/game
NEW concedes 333.3/game · league avg 344.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Josh 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
48
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Josh 0.1/game
NEW concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.5
Josh 0.0/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
77
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.2
Josh 0.7/game
NEW concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
16.9
32
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
559.8
Josh 16.9/game
NEW concedes 559.8/game · league avg 544.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Josh36.9
19
NEW1722.7
56
Josh 36.9/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Josh0.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Offloads
10.2per game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Offloads
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.5(23)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(2)
Dry games0.5(21)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+12%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01BRIDeine Mariner0.10-100%
08-01BRIAdam Reynolds0.10-100%
08-01BRIJosiah Karapani0.000%
08-01BRIKotoni Staggs0.92+113%
08-01BRIGrant Anderson0.40-100%
08-01BRIEzra Mam0.21+350%
08-01BRIReece Walsh0.71+36%
08-01BRIVa'a Semu0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.