• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 25.8/game vs a 23.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 10: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.