0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.0 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.2 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (30%)🌬 9.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Prestonvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
66.1
39
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Preston 66.1/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
36
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Preston 0.9/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
23.4
71
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Preston 23.4/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Preston 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Preston 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Preston 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Preston 0.4/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.6
46
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Preston 24.6/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Preston66.1
39
MEL1679.1
50
Preston 66.1/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Preston0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tries
4.5per game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At AAMI Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.0(14)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)
Dry games0.0(12)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Tries
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-26%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANReuben Garrick0.40-100%
08-08MANJamal Fogarty0.20-100%
08-08MANJason Saab0.60-100%
08-08MANTolutau Koula0.51+89%
08-08MANBlake Wilson0.31+300%
08-08MANJoey Walsh0.20-100%
08-08MANLehi Hopoate0.70-100%
08-08MANTaniela Paseka0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Preston's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5