0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 11.2/game vs a 9.7 league average
+1.2 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 0.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Matthewvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
50.7
28
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Matthew 50.7/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
43
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Matthew 1.1/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
9.4
30
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Matthew 9.4/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Matthew 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Matthew 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Matthew 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
73
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Matthew 0.7/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.5
34
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Matthew 17.5/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Matthew50.7
28
GLD1851.3
94
Matthew 50.7/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Matthew1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Offloads
11.2per game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Offloads
At Cbus Super Stadium1.8(5)+0.7
Everywhere else1.1(84)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(8)+0.1
Dry games1.1(81)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Offloads
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-38%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.60-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.61+62%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns1.11-11%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.20-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.60-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford0.82+147%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater1.10-100%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.