• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 22.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (10 gm)
• +0.8 wet forecast — averages 2.4 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.