0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.0 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 0.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.1 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11.5°C☂ 2.1mm (97%)🌬 16.5 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Paulvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
4.0
1
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Paul 4.0/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.0
18
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Paul 5.0/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Paul 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
1
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
569.6
Paul 1.0/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Paul4.0
1
MEL1698.3
50
Paul 4.0/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Paul0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tries
4.5per game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.0(7)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.0(7)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Tries
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYEnari Tuala0.20-100%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin0.40-100%
07-31CBYJacob Kiraz0.60-100%
07-31CBYMatt Burton0.31+217%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama0.51+100%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton0.42+357%
07-31CBYConnor Tracey0.20-100%
07-31CBYMax King0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Paul's. Computed from this app's own records.
