• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 11.6/game vs a 9.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −0.0 wet forecast — averages 1.4 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.