0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 32.8 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (16 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackle Breaks
33.9per game · league avg 32.8
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Accor Stadium0.6(16)+0.3
Everywhere else0.3(13)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.5
Dry games0.5(27)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARJack De Belin0.20-100%
08-08PARSaxon Pryke0.71+50%
08-08PARSam Tuivaiti0.91+7%
08-08PARLuca Moretti1.52+33%
08-08PARRyley Smith0.10-100%
08-08PARTallyn Da Silva1.02+100%
08-08PARMitchell Moses0.71+36%
08-08PARJunior Paulo1.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Lipoi's. Computed from this app's own records.