0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.1/game vs a 5.1 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.5°C☂ 0mm (31%)🌬 11.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Manaiavs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
45.2
23
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Manaia 45.2/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
44
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Manaia 1.2/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.6
28
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Manaia 8.6/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
55
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Manaia 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Manaia 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
59
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Manaia 0.3/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
31
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Manaia 0.2/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.3
24
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Manaia 12.3/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Manaia45.2
23
PEN1576.6
25
Manaia 45.2/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Manaia1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Line Breaks
4.1per game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At AAMI Park0.2(5)
Everywhere else0.2(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-0.3
Dry games0.3(12)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+33%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima0.41+183%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.10-100%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak0.80-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.40-100%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira1.11-12%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita0.21+375%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad0.92+117%
08-07WARWayde Egan0.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Manaia's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5