• 0.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 8/game vs a 9.7 league average
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.