• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.6/game vs a 3.9 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (48 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.3 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.