0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.8/game vs a 4.2 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (44 gm)
vs them: averages 0.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaydenvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
108.7
67
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Jayden 108.7/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksfavorable
94
36.5
Jayden 2.5/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.9
55
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Jayden 17.9/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Triesfavorable
81
4.8
Jayden 0.5/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
92
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
Jayden 0.6/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
86
Line Breaksfavorable
81
6.0
Jayden 0.6/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
80
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Jayden 0.8/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.7
40
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Jayden 21.7/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jayden108.7
67
NQL1785.8
75
Jayden 108.7/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Jayden2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tries
4.8per game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At Cbus Super Stadium0.4(44)
Everywhere else0.3(52)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.6(7)+0.2
Dry games0.3(89)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Tries
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
-64%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDAJ Brimson0.20-100%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui0.10-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia0.20-100%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita0.40-100%
08-06GLDPhillip Sami0.72+186%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika0.10-100%
08-06GLDKeano Kini0.20-100%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.