0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 5.1 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jojovs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
118.5
73
Run Metresfavorable
63
1715.7
Jojo 118.5/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksfavorable
69
33.7
Jojo 2.5/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.2
52
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Jojo 17.2/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
82
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Jojo 0.4/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Jojo 0.2/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Jojo 0.5/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
76
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.0
Jojo 0.7/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.3
83
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
558.0
Jojo 45.3/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Jojo118.5
73
NEW1715.7
63
Jojo 118.5/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Jojo2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Line Breaks
4.5per game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At McDonald Jones Stadium0.7(3)+0.2
Everywhere else0.5(78)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(6)-0.2
Dry games0.5(75)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NEW · Line Breaks
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-65%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRMatthew Timoko0.50-100%
08-09CBREthan Sanders0.30-100%
08-09CBRJed Stuart0.20-100%
08-09CBRSimi Sasagi0.72+180%
08-09CBRXavier Savage0.40-100%
08-09CBREthan Strange0.40-100%
08-09CBRKaeo Weekes0.50-100%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh0.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jojo's. Computed from this app's own records.