0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 2.6/game vs a 4.2 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 0.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 0.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Alofianavs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
112.4
69
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Alofiana 112.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
79
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Alofiana 2.6/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.6
15
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Alofiana 4.6/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
99
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Alofiana 0.9/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Alofiana 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
99
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Alofiana 1.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Alofiana 0.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.0
45
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Alofiana 24.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Alofiana112.4
69
PEN1576.6
25
Alofiana 112.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Alofiana2.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Tries
2.6per game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tries
At Go Media Stadium0.8(5)-0.1
Everywhere else0.9(68)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(3)+0.4
Dry games0.9(70)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Tries
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-30%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima0.40-100%
08-07WARWayde Egan0.10-100%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak0.90-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.20-100%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita0.31+217%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.10-100%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad0.71+44%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Alofiana's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5