• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 11.6/game vs a 9.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.