1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 24.4/game vs a 23.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 2.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Points
24.4per game · league avg 23.7
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium6.0(2)+4.8
Everywhere else1.2(78)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-1.4
Dry games1.4(77)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Points
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-40%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARJordan Samrani1.54+160%
08-08PARLuca Moretti0.30-100%
08-08PARBrian Kelly0.90-100%
08-08PARWill Penisini1.50-100%
08-08PARJosh Addo-Carr1.30-100%
08-08PARRonald Volkman1.84+122%
08-08PARIsaiah Iongi1.50-100%
08-08PARJack Williams0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.