0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 5.2/game vs a 5.1 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 1 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.5 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jakevs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
68.8
40
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Jake 68.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
65
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Jake 2.0/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.8
45
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Jake 14.8/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
81
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Jake 0.4/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
93
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Jake 0.7/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Jake 0.5/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
82
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Jake 0.8/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.1
29
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Jake 15.1/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jake68.8
40
GLD1851.3
94
Jake 68.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jake2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Line Breaks
5.2per game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Cbus Super Stadium1.0(4)+0.8
Everywhere else0.3(76)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(4)
Dry games0.3(76)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Line Breaks
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-69%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.80-100%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.000%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns1.00-100%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.30-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.60-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.71+50%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater0.30-100%
08-06NQLSoni Luke0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jake's. Computed from this app's own records.