0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 30.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackle Breaks
30.4per game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Suncorp Stadium0.0(3)-0.7
Everywhere else0.7(49)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.4(9)-0.2
Dry games0.7(43)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+1.6
Avg diff %
+243%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIThomas Duffy0.11+1100%
08-08BRIJaiyden Hunt0.63+371%
08-08BRIGrant Anderson0.70-100%
08-08BRIEzra Mam2.28+260%
08-08BRIXavier Willison1.82+11%
08-08BRIBilly Walters1.03+200%
08-08BRIJosiah Karapani2.23+38%
08-08BRIJordan Riki1.83+64%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.