0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.8/game vs a 4.2 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (52 gm)
vs them: averages 0.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Matvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
85.2
52
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Mat 85.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
34
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Mat 0.8/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.2
86
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Mat 31.2/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Mat 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Mat 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Mat 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
58
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Mat 0.5/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.7
53
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Mat 28.7/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Mat85.2
52
GLD1851.3
94
Mat 85.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Mat0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Tries
4.8per game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At McDonald Jones Stadium0.1(52)
Everywhere else0.1(54)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(7)-0.1
Dry games0.1(99)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Tries
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-17%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.40-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.31+200%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns0.80-100%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.10-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.70-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford0.41+163%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater0.40-100%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mat's. Computed from this app's own records.