• 2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 8.7/game vs a 9.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −1.5 wet forecast — averages 0.9 in the wet (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.