• 1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.1/game vs a 32.8 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 1 there (4 gm)
• −0.3 wet forecast — averages 0.9 in the wet (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.6 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 13: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.