0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 11.2/game vs a 9.7 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 2.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Fletchervs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
112.2
69
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Fletcher 112.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.2
86
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Fletcher 3.2/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.5
48
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Fletcher 15.5/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
89
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Fletcher 0.5/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
86
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Fletcher 0.4/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Fletcher 0.5/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
76
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Fletcher 0.7/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.2
53
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Fletcher 28.2/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Fletcher112.2
69
GLD1851.3
94
Fletcher 112.2/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Fletcher3.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Offloads
11.2per game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Offloads
At McDonald Jones Stadium1.2(19)+0.5
Everywhere else0.7(25)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(2)+0.1
Dry games0.9(42)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Offloads
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-38%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLTom Chester0.60-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue0.61+62%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns1.11-11%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.20-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi0.60-100%
08-06NQLJake Clifford0.82+147%
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater1.10-100%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Fletcher's. Computed from this app's own records.